Real Estate Market in Historical Perspective

US Home Prices, Building Costs, Population and Interest Rates, 1890-2004
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Heavy solid line (left scale): real (inflation adjusted) home price index in US, 1890 = 100

Thin line (left scale): real building cost index, 1979 = 100

Thin line (right scale): US population in millions

Lowest thin line (left scale): long term interest rates

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Source: Schiller, Irrational Exhuberance.
Please read this great book to understand more about the calculation methods.

In this book, Shiller draws out the psychological origins of volatility in financial markets.

Robert J. Shiller is Professor of Economics at Yale University.

Stock Market in Historical Perspective 2

Price Relative to Earnings 1881-2005

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Upper Curve: Price to Earnings ratio, Jan 1881 to Jan 2005

(= real S&P Composite Index / moving average of preceding 10 years of real S&P Composite Earnigs)
Lower curve: Intereste rate; Yield of US long-term US Government bonds (nominal)

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Source: Schiller, Irrational Exhuberance.
Calculations by the Author using data from S&P Statistical Service; US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Cowles and Associates (Common Stock Indexes); Warren and Pearson (Gold and Prices)

Stock Market in Historical Perspective

Stock Prices and Earnings, 1871-2005

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Upper Curve: Real (inflation corrected) S&P Composite Stock Price Index from Jan 1871 to Jan 2005

Lower Curve: Real (inflation corrected) S&P Composite Earnings

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Source: Schiller, Irrational Exhuberance.

Calculations by the Author using data from S&P Statistical Service; US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Cowles and Associates (Common Stock Indexes); Warren and Pearson (Gold and Prices)

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This is great, you can see the Great Crack of 1929 and the crack of 1987!

Da Cau

Herbie Hancock / Watermelon Man

Herbie Hancock est le pianiste.

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Je dis cela parce que certains pensent que c'est le saxophoniste, alors que le saxo est joué par Dexter Gordon. D'autres pensent que Herbie Hancock n'est pas le nom d'une personne mais le nom d'une marque de poupées (la poupée Herbie),alors qu'il s'agit d'un pianiste / compositeur.

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Plus sur ce grand musicen ... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbie_Hancock

If we, citizens, ...

'If we, citizens, do not support our artists, then we sacrifice our imagination in the altar of crude reality and we end up believing in nothing and having worthless dreams'.

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From Yann Martel, Life of Pi

Booker Prize 2001.

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The secret of what anything means to us depends on how we've connected it to all the other things we know. That's why almost always wrong to seek the 'real meaning' of anything. A thing with just one meaning has scarcely any meaning at all.

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From Marvin Minsky, Society Of Mind

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More about Marvin Minsky : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marvin_minsky

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